Can Diet Soda Really Raise Your Diabetes Risk? A New Study Says Yes

When most people think about type 2 diabetes, they immediately blame sugar-sweetened drinks like soda, energy drinks, or sweetened juices. And they’re right—too much sugar in liquid form can spike your risk.

But here’s the kicker: a massive Australian study just found that diet sodas (artificially sweetened beverages) may also raise your risk of type 2 diabetes (Kabthymer RH, et.al., 2025).

The Study at a Glance

• Researchers tracked 36,608 adults (ages 40–69) in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study.
• They looked at how often people drank sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs).
• People were grouped into 4 categories: never/almost never, 1–3 times a month, 1–6 times a week, or daily.

The Results

• Daily sugary drinkers had a 23% higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes compared to those who rarely drank them.
• Daily diet soda drinkers had an even higher risk—38% more likely to develop diabetes.
• Here’s the twist: when researchers factored in obesity and waist size, the sugar drink risk went away. But the diet soda risk stayed strong.

What This Means for You

• Sugary drinks still matter—because they drive weight gain, which in turn raises diabetes risk.
• But diet sodas may pose a risk independent of weight. That suggests artificial sweeteners could affect metabolism, insulin sensitivity, or gut health in ways we’re only beginning to understand.
• Translation: swapping Coke for Diet Coke might not be the healthy hack you think it is.

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The Takeaway

If you want to cut your diabetes risk:

1. Limit all sweetened drinks—whether sugar or “zero-calorie.”
2. Choose water, sparkling water, or unsweetened tea/coffee instead.
3. Remember: even “diet” labels don’t always mean safe in the long run.

Reference

Kabthymer RH, Wu T, Beigrezaei S, Franco OH, Hodge AM, de Courten B. The association of sweetened beverage intake with risk of type 2 diabetes in an Australian population: A longitudinal study. Diabetes Metab. 2025 May 16:101665. doi: 10.1016/j.diabet.2025.101665. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 40383372.